Market Changes and Predictions

Williams & Williams

Market Changes and Predictions

The rollercoaster of events impacting the housing market across the United States has created mixed market conditions. Sonoma County cities like Healdsburg and Windsor have cooled under the pressure of high mortgage rates, low levels of inventory, and inflation rates. As the market continues to balance out from hot seller’s conditions, both buyers and sellers must adjust. To better contextualize market changes and predictions, here are current market statistics for Healdsburg and Windsor.

Housing market statistics

The housing market across Sonoma County is experiencing cooling trends. Median prices are on a slight decline, while unsold inventory is 100% higher than last year. When looking for and selling Healdsburg real estate or Windsor homes, here’s what buyers and sellers can expect, given statistics as of January 2023.

  • Home sales in Healdsburg have decreased by 33.% compared to last year
  • Home sales in Windsor have decreased by 9.1% compared to last year
  • The median price for Healdsburg homes has decreased by 35.2%
  • The median price for Windsor homes has increased by 2.9%
  • Healdsburg listings spend a median of 41 days on the market
  • Windsor listings spend a median of 28 days on the market

Housing market review

Buyer demand for Windsor real estate and Healdsburg properties is on the decline. This is reflected in decreasing home sales. As such, sellers can expect more challenges listing their properties. Across Sonoma County, unsold inventory is rising from 2021’s levels. Even so, inventory is still very low. This impacts a buyer’s ability to find properties and may contribute to low home sales. However, it’s important to look at city-specific data when considering housing statistics. For example, although Windsor has experienced an increase in active listings, Healdsburg has not.

Cooling trends may be less evident in median prices. High prices may serve as an obstacle for buyers. Even so, many buyers are less willing to purchase homes at higher prices. This is reflected in the sales-to-list price percentages of each city. Buyers are beginning to negotiate more as market trends cool.

Market predictions

Those interested in buying or selling Healdsburg real estate can expect a few things further into 2023. For one, the luxury market will also be impacted by larger market trends. Additionally, mortgage rates will have a large role in market trends and buyer demand.

The luxury market will cool

The luxury market in Sonoma County experienced soaring highs in the spring of 2021. Quarter two of 2021 had approximately 139 luxury home sales. Since then, the county hasn’t experienced the same levels of luxury sales. In quarter four of 2022, there were 51 luxury home sales. This is a 43% decline compared to last year. Part of these lower rates can be attributed to seasonality. Luxury sales peak in the spring and summer months, while lows are in the first quarter of the year. Even so, luxury sales aren’t likely to reach the same highs as in 2021.

Interest rates decrease buyer power

The spike in mortgage rates significantly impacted buyers’ ability to purchase a home. High rates had the desired effect of cooling the market. The 30-year fixed interest rate increased from 6.34% to 6.58%. This is a stark contrast to 3.33% at the end of 2021. High rates have made buyers less willing or capable to take out a mortgage. As such, mortgage application rates have decreased, and sellers are also less willing to refinance existing mortgages. Refinancing rates have decreased as well.

Mortgage rates will moderate the market

As mortgage rates remain high, prices for Windsor real estate and other Sonoma County properties will continue to decrease. Higher interest rates limit buyer power, which will result in less buyer activity. With fewer buyers on the market, sellers will have to adjust prices to remain competitive. Single-family home sales are expected to drop 7.2%. Median prices are also expected to dip by 8.8%.

Inflation will impact buyers

Inflation in Sonoma County reached an alarming high in June 2022. Since then, it has declined, but even so, high inflation rates seriously impact a buyer’s ability to finance a home.

Less buyer and seller activity

With tougher market conditions, activity may decrease for buyers and sellers. Buyers may opt to wait for the market to cool. Buyers are also more willing to wait for a home they like, then negotiate for a price they see as fair. As such, sellers will have to prepare to sell at a lower price. Some sellers may also choose to wait for better conditions. They may also not want to navigate financing a new mortgage with today’s high rates. Combined, less activity will continue cooling the market.

Use this information to guide your home transaction

There are several changes to expect from Sonoma County in 2023, but that doesn’t mean it’s not still a good time to buy or sell a home. The best way to navigate local market trends as a buyer or seller is by partnering with an incredible agent with experience working in the area. When you’re ready to start your home transaction, contact one of the expert agents at Williams & Williams to guide you through the process. Regardless of market conditions, they will help you have a seamless and satisfying experience.

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